中国三十强饲料企业当前正处于如下四大困惑之中。一孔之见，姑妄言之。
Based on my personal opinion, currently, there are four important dilemmas which the top 30 feed companies in China face.
一、本土化还是国际化之惑
(Localization Internationalization)
以泰国正大集团为代表的外资企业在中国开疆拓土取得巨大成功；以希望集团为代表的本土企业在越南等国家攻城拔寨取得了卓 越成就。事实告诉我们，商业无国界。许多伟大企业的发展历程证明，国门之内无名企。
An important trend in recent years is the increased internationalization of global markets. Foreign enterprises, such as CP Group Thailand, have achieved great success by exploiting the Chinese market. Chinese feed enterprises, such as New Hope Group, have expanded overseas with the prospect of claiming many achievements in foreign countries like Vietnam. These facts signify the importance of the saying that “business knows no borders.” Throughout the course of development, to be successful, enterprises could pursue neither a closed-door nor isolationist policy.
中国强大的过程现实上也必然伴随着资本、技术、市场的向外扩张，这刺激着中国饲料行业的领军企业跃跃欲试于国际化的发展。截然对立的观点则认为，中国是全世界有潜力的市场，本土企业国际化发展是舍近求远、舍本逐末，况且中国饲料企业无论是股东还是管理团队的素养都达不到国际化的要求，盲目国际化无异于飞蛾扑火、自取灭亡。西谚有云：“离家越远，离失败越近。”
The successful growth development of China is accompanied by the broad expansion of capital, technology, markets; these accomplishments greatly encourage Chinese feed enterprises to pursue internationalization. However, the opposing viewpoint insists on localization, based on the notion that China is the market with the highest growth potential in the world today. Proponents of this viewpoint believe there is no need to achieve internationalization simpy for the sake of internationalization; that is, there is no need to strive after something unattainable, meanwhile forgoing substantial opportunities immediately at hand. Moreover, the scale of Chinese feed enterprises the will of shareholders management teams may yet have reached the level required to successfully expand abroad. As is often the case, operating developing businesses far away the core, can lead to failure – as encapsulated by the old Western proverb, “the farther away hometown, the closer to failure.”
此争论旷日已久，难有结论。我的看法是中国饲料企业应该首先立足国内市场，取得优势地位后放眼周边，尤其是越南、老挝、柬埔寨、缅甸、朝鲜、哈萨克斯坦等邻国。对于印度、俄罗斯、韩国、日本等邻国，市场虽大但进入难度亦大，不宜投资。
In weighing the pros cons of localization versus internationalization, it is difficult to conclude which course is preferable. my point of view, the primary strategy of Chinese feed enterprises should be to establish dominance in the domestic market, then move to neighboring, but less-developed countries such as Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Burma, North Korea, Kazakhstan. Indeed, in spite of larger market sizes, it would be much harder to invest in neighboring but well-developed countries such as India, Russia, South Korea, Japan, Australia.
二、专一化还是多元化之惑
(Focus Diversification)
尽管全世界大多数企业都是靠“诺基亚模式”即专业化经营，专注于唯 一选定的领域并取得成功；但也有如美国GE(通用电气公司)者横空出世，凭借多元化发展取得巨大成功。中国正处于由混沌初开向秩序井然的成熟社会过渡的时期，眼前活生生的例证是：东方希望集团靠饲料起家却以电解铝行业成为中国私营企业的翘楚；新希望企业千军万马做饲料，而其最 大的收益却来自不经意间投资入股的银行业和房地产业。近年新希望依靠资本力量投资控股或入股多家农牧企业，成为因多元化而成功的鲜明案例。
Even though many of the world’s successful enterprises, such as Nokia, have pursued a highly focused strategy in a specific sector industry, other large enterprises, such as GE, have attained even greater success by pursuing a highly-diversified strategy. Currently, China is in a transition point, moving a developing, volatile, informal market to a more mature market with rules, regulations, transparency. For instance, East Hope Group initially was a feed business, but it soon grew into one of China’s major private aluminum enterprises. Additionally, in its early stages, New Hope Group invested in banking real estate, instead of focusing its resources on the feed business. Recently, New Hope Group has a robust capital base due to its investment holdings equity participation in several agriculture companies, which have helped the company to diversify thereby lower the amount of risk to which it is exposed.
今天的中国社会，政商关系密切，因一业兴旺而积累了足够资金和庞大社会资源，从而更加有利于开展多元化的经营。坚持专一化、抗拒多元化，最 终才能走上成功之路，是被全世界证明了的经验，但在中国却并不见得灵验。高度专业化企业构成的群体强大而高 效，如：微软、IBM、英特尔因高度分工、密切合作而令美国成为IT业霸主；而过度庞杂的巨头企业，如日韩财团政商勾结虽使其崛起迅速，却最 终阻碍行业进步甚至危害社会的公正。
Today, the relationship between government companies has largely been liberalized. The accumulation distribution of wealth, social benefits, resources the pursuit of diversification are based on the decisions strength of individual enterprises. The most successful approach might be found by examining cases regarding the development of specific businesses industries, but these examples may be applicable to China. Highly specialized companies such as Microsoft, IBM, Intel, which began in the U.S., have become global leaders in the IT industry. On the other hand, some conglomerates in Japan South Korea may have negatively impacted the overall development of the countries because many deals were made with the respective governments, often behind closed doors.
多元化还是专一化关键取决于我们的目标是无限扩大自身的财富数量，还是愿意投身于我们喜欢的事业、贡献于我们所生长的国家。我倾向于“有所为，有所不为”。
The problems created by focus diversification should be decided by each individual enterprise, based upon rational choices about maximizing wealth creation, maximizing economic impact, becoming a leader within a particular industry sector. I prefer to be an expert in a given field.
三、专业化还是一体化之惑
(Specialization Integration)
专业化地把饲料做精、做细、做大、做强是我们的传统，这一传统首先在肉鸡产业上遇到挑战。全世界认同的趋势是，今后很难有单一的商业化肉鸡饲料生产者， 而必须实行从育种到孵化、饲料供应到防疫灭病、养殖到屠宰再到肉品加工的产业一体化经营。肉鸡业的这一趋势是否也将推行到猪、蛋鸡以及反刍动物生产领域呢?美洲的一体化经营趋势十分明显，以史密斯菲尔德公司为代表的“养殖托拉斯式”的企业，规模巨大并完全左右了市场价格，使得畜牧业生产更有计划性，但有垄断之虞。近年，史密斯菲尔德公司业绩出现巨额亏损，说明该模式运行也并非完善。
The traditional manner of the feed industry is to specialize in feed production to increase complexity, enhance technology, improve quality. This traditional manner has encountered challenges of the broiler industry, as exemplified by the comments, “mere broiler feed producer.” The trend is toward integrated production, by assembling the different branches of the process: breeding, hatching, feed supply, epidemic prevention control, feeding, slaughtering, meat processing. This trend will likely also affect pork, layer ruminant industries. The trend has been the case in America; for example, Smithfield Foods is representative of Trus Model. Large scale production operations obviously affect the market price should lead to economies of scale. However, in recent years, Smithfield Foods presented signficant losses in its annual financial report. This data suggests imperfection with the Trus Model.
如果中国的未来趋势走向一体化，我们就必须主动转变——或自身形成完全产业链、或联合其他相关企业完成一体化经营，尽管产业化经营风险巨大，但我们不得不面对这个现实挑战。与北美相比，欧洲的专业化色彩很浓。大量的家庭农场适度规模地经营，政府并不鼓励扩大养殖规模，相反实行配额限制，专业的饲料企业、专业的屠宰加工企业与农场之间签订合约、各司其职，政府通过政策直接干预畜牧业生产过程，把周期性的风险分化于不同生产环节和大量的农场，降低了生产风险，缩短了危机时间。
In fact, this trend toward integration can be particulary challenging, especially if the industry as a whole is consolidating. The challanges lies in converting innovation execution expertise in a highly-specialized domain, into a broader expertise in integrating other companies into a coherent structure, operating each component successfully synergistically. In a sense, compared with North American companies, European ones tend to be even more specialized. Many family farms are under the restriction of quota allocations limited scales of operation, formal contracts with specialized feed companies specialized slaughterhouses. To protect the production soundness of the market, the government has implemented direct control of the process of production. Government does this through the process known as risk-sharing: it controls each branch of production a large amount of farms to have risk characteristics that people are comfortable with, thereby reducing crises.
我仍然认为欧洲的模式更适合中国国情，然而这种模式在欧洲能够发挥功效，第 一有赖于一个专业化的畜牧业政府管理部门，既能未雨绸缪地防范又能力挽狂澜地制止；第 二有赖于一个高度诚信的商业文化，各生产环节真 正让契约有效执行。
I still consider the model practiced in the EU to be preferable. The EU model is accomplished by maintaining crucial controls over operation of the specializated livestock chain. In addition, well-functioning commercial markets the principle of good faith are essential to a healthy economy.
四、私人化还是公众化之惑
(Private Public)
公司通过上市在资本市场筹集资金，成为近年来中国企业的流行做法。饲料行业已有多家捷足先登者。在中国不可思议的高市盈率的资本市场环境下，这些企业一夜暴富，显著地拉开了与同行之间的资本实力差距。股价虚高产生的巨大诱惑使得“上市”成了比追求经营质量的提高更为有效的创富手段，有些企业甚至不惜为此弄虚作假。
A firm may raise funds in financial markets by issuing equity, such as common stock shares, which represent claims on the net income (income after expenses taxes) assets of a business. China has had active capital markets for many years, therefore there are many publicly-listed feed companies. Companies listed in China have tended to have extraordinarily high P/E ratios, creating sudden wealth large gaps between listed unlisted companies. It is possible that some weaker firms may actually be most eager to sell securities to unwary investors, the resulting adverse selection problem may keep stock prices in bubble territory. Furthermore, because of the market structure lack of shareholder rights today, once an investor has bought a security, thereby providing money to a firm, the recipient firm may be incentivited engage in riskier activities to commit outright fraud.
我们必须明白，企业上市或曰公众化只是发展企业的一种手段，绝非经营企业的目的；企业上市公众化也不是企业发展的唯 一途径，对于很多企业而言并不是最 好的手段。德国宝马公司、美国嘉吉公司都是世界顶 尖的大企业，他们却始终保持着私人企业的不坏金身。企业上市后将面临更严格的公众监督和机构监管， 同时也会显著提高企业的运营成本。而为了上市虚报业绩、编造项目可能会使这些企业最 终失去竞争力。在现实中国资本市场的虚高股价之下，保持理性异乎寻常的艰难，但我们必须实事求是。
But Chinese firms shareholders should be clear about the following concept: Going public is just an instrument of the company to finance future development, but it is the final purpose of operations. In contrast, both BMW Cargill are private holding companies well-known in the world for many generations. There are stringent reporting requirements for public companies. Their bookkeeping must follow certain strict principles, their books are subject to periodic inspection, they must make certain information available to the public. These necessary duties increase the cost of operations. Unfortunately, in order to go public, many firms in China create false financial statements fabricate profit loss accounts; but such firms will only end in bankruptcy, to the detriment of shareholders, customers, employees, society. With capital markets supporting such overvalued stock prices, it is unlikely that rational decision-making will be achieved incentivized in the near-term. But, it is necessary to be honor pragmatist.
上述困惑之外以三聚氰胺为代表的食品安全事件，使饲料行业首当其冲成为众矢之的，监管力度不断加大是政府方面矫枉过正的表现，更多行业管理的苛刻新规使得出现问题时政府可以不承担任何责任，而由企业完全承担一切后果，这类似于商业活动中的霸王条款，扼杀了企业的活力，降低了企业的竞争力，企业显然不堪重负。此外随着人类活动的增多，地球环境发生剧烈变化，生态系统趋于崩溃，动物疫病愈演愈烈，加之人们对卫生与安全的苛刻要求和对疫病的恐慌心理，使饲料及畜牧业缺乏稳定的生存基础，这个关系国计民生的行业已经成为一个高危行业。
In addition to the challenges mentioned above, a major concern within the industry is the substandard deteriorating FSQS (food safety quality service). Many problems in the food industry have been discovered, such as melamine, which have caused the feed industry to be held at fault by the public. Such debacles, have resulted in increased supervision regulation of the industry restrictions imposed on many companies. Going forward, regulation red tape continue to worsen impose greater burdens on companies. The livestock industry is now under huge pressure, strangled companies reduced . Moreover, the world is underoing a dramatic increase in human activity, severe damage to the environment, ecological disasters, the likelihood of animal-derived epidemics. Considering all of the above components, the feed livestock industries are under negative status have recently become even higher-risk businesses.
于2009年底
